Congress ahead, but the key lies with JD(S)

Karnataka seems to be headed for yet another fractured mandate. At the end of four years full of political action and drama, the electorate appears to have given a rather undramatic verdict: if we go by the CNN-IBN-Deccan Herald-CSDS poll, all the three major parties appear to be exactly where they were in 2004 in terms of their vote share.

The Congress is expected to secure around 35 per cent votes, the same as last time. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) contesting on its own is likely to secure the same vote share of 30 per cent which it secured in alliance with Janata Dal (United) last time.

Despite many prophecies of doom, the Janata Dal (Secular) appears to have retained its share of 21 per cent votes.

Other players like the JD(U), the BSP and the SP do not appear to have made a dent, even allowing for the fact that surveys tend to under-estimate smaller parties.

This is not to say that nothing has changed in the popular preferences in the state. The reality is far from it. The public mood has undergone many ups and downs

The regional and caste-community equations have undergone a lot of churning. Popular evaluation of issues and personalities has undergone a serious change.

Yet the net effect of all these changes tends to cancel each other and leaves all the key players at the same level in terms of popular support.

The last few weeks have seen some major shifts. On the whole, the Congress appears to have lost the substantial lead that it enjoyed at the starting point of the electoral race.

The CNN-IBN-Deccan Herald-CSDS pre-poll survey, which was done before the candidates were announced and the campaign began, had shown that the Congress enjoyed an 11 point lead over the BJP in its share of popular votes.


Source:- IBN